Backtesting Results

The Numbers We Actually Got.

We don't share theoretical projections. Every metric on this page comes from the same backtesting engine the live bots run on — the same code, the same data, the same parameters.

How We Test

Backtesting That's Held to a Standard

Not all backtests are equal. Ours are run with strict rules to prevent the most common forms of overfitting and look-ahead bias.

Real Historical OHLC Data

Daily open/high/low/close fetched via MarketStack API. No synthetic data, no adjusted-price corrections that add look-ahead bias.

5-Year Test Window

Each parameter set is tested against the full 5-year dataset — not cherry-picked date ranges. The result is the average, not the best-case year.

Parameter Grid Search

Every dimension is varied systematically: 384 combinations for Turtle, 528 for ATSB. The winner is the one that survives across the full sample.

Results

Best Configuration per Bot

These figures represent the winning parameter set across each bot's full test period. Live bot runs use these exact parameters.

AlphaTrading (Turtle)

20-day channel
Starting capital $5,000,000
Avg total return (5yr) +$9.1M (+182%)
Risk per trade (hard cap) 2% of equity
Max pyramid units 4
ATR stop multiplier 1.5×
Combinations tested 384

ATSB (MA Confluence)

MA5 / MA20
Entry threshold Score ≥ 4 / 5
Full-size entry (score 5) 100% of position
Reduced entry (score 4) 75% of position
Hard stop 3% from entry
Exit trigger Death cross / MA1 pullback
Combinations tested 528
Parameter Comparison

What Was Tested vs What Won

These are the ranges we searched. The winning values are highlighted — they're the ones used in the live bots today.

Parameter Range Tested AlphaTrading Winner ATSB Winner
Fast MA period 5, 10, 15, 20 days 20-day channel 5-day
Slow MA period 20, 30, 50, 55 days N/A (channel, not MA) 20-day
Stop size 3%, 5%, 7%, 10% / 1–3× ATR 1.5× ATR 3%
Entry threshold Score 2, 3, 4 / breakout channels 20-day breakout Score ≥ 4
Pyramid / sizing 1–4 units / 50–100% of size Up to 4 units, 2% risk each Score-weighted (75–100%)
Trailing stop On / Off On (10-day channel) On (MA1 pullback)

What This Data Is — and Isn't

Everything on this page is simulated historical performance — not live trading results. Backtests assume perfect execution at closing prices, no slippage, and no market impact. In real trading, all three affect returns.

The purpose of this data is to show you the research methodology, not to promise returns. Axiom Capital runs these bots because the evidence supports it — not because any result is guaranteed.

For a full explanation of the risks involved in following these bots, read the Risk & Transparency page before subscribing.

Run the Backtests Yourself

Both simulators are free. You can test every parameter combination — the same ones we ran — and see exactly how the strategy behaves on any instrument.

Turtle Simulator MA Simulator