AlphaTrading Bot

We Tested 384 Combinations Before Going Live.

The AlphaTrading Bot runs a disciplined breakout system — the same logic that made the original Turtle Traders famous — rebuilt for modern markets with every edge verified through systematic backtesting.

384
Parameter combinations tested
5yr
Backtest duration
+$9.1M
Avg return on $5M capital
Live
Running daily on Telegram
The Strategy

Breakout Trading, Explained Simply

You don't need to know what an ATR is. Here's the idea in plain English: the bot watches for stocks making new highs after a quiet period — and when they break out, it gets in.

The Entry: Wait for a Breakout

The bot tracks the highest closing price over the last 20 trading days (about one month). The moment a stock closes above that level, it's a signal — the market is showing momentum that wasn't there before.

Position Sizing: Risk First, Always

Before buying anything, the bot calculates how much it's willing to lose on that trade. It risks exactly 2% of the portfolio per position — then works backwards to figure out how many shares to buy based on how volatile the stock is.

Pyramiding: Add to Winners

When a trade moves in the right direction, the bot adds more. Up to 4 separate tranches — each sized with the same 2% risk rule. You only scale in when the market is proving you right.

Two Independent Exits

Every trade has two safeguards working simultaneously. A hard stop based on volatility protects against sudden crashes. A trailing stop that follows the trend captures profits as the move extends. Whichever triggers first exits the position.

Entry Rule (simplified)
If today's close ≥ highest close of the last 20 days → BUY
Shares = floor( (Portfolio × 2%) ÷ (ATR × volatility-multiplier) )
Exit Rule (whichever fires first)
Hard stop: entry_price − (ATR × 1.5)
Trailing stop: lowest close of last 10 days (updates every bar)
The Research

Every Variable Was Tested

We didn't just run one backtest and call it done. We systematically varied every parameter — channel length, stop size, pyramiding speed, max units — and found the combination that survives over 5 years of real market data.

Parameters Tested (6 dimensions × 384 total combinations)

Best Configuration
Breakout Channel Length 20 days
ATR Stop Multiplier 1.5×
ATR Scale Step (pyramiding) 0.5× ATR
Max Pyramid Units 4 units
Risk Per Unit 2% of equity
ATR Smoothing Wilder's EMA

The 20-day channel consistently outperformed longer lookback windows (30, 40, 55 days) on this watchlist. Shorter windows produced too many false entries; longer windows missed the bulk of the move.

5-Year Backtest Results — Best Configuration

+$9.1M Average Return on $5M Starting Capital

Across 5 years of historical OHLC data on the live watchlist, the winning parameter set averaged +182% total return — with an ATR-calibrated stop that prevented any single loss from exceeding 2% of portfolio value.

+182%
Total return (5yr best config)
2%
Max risk per trade (hard rule)
4
Max concurrent positions per symbol

Past performance of a backtest is not a guarantee of future results. The figures above represent simulated performance over historical data, not live trading results. Live bot performance may differ materially. See the Risk & Transparency page for full disclosures.

Risk Management

Two Independent Safeguards on Every Trade

The bot doesn't rely on hope. Every open position has two independent stops — they operate simultaneously, and whichever one fires first exits the trade.

Hard Stop (ATR Floor)

  • Set at entry: entry_price − (ATR × 1.5)
  • Fixed — doesn't move after entry
  • Caps the maximum dollar loss on any single unit
  • Calculated from Wilder's ATR smoothing (not simple average)

Trailing Stop (Channel Floor)

  • Trails the price — recalculated every day
  • Set at the lowest close of the last 10 days (long positions)
  • Rises as the trend extends — locks in profits automatically
  • Exits the full position when price breaks the channel
Watchlist

What AlphaTrading Watches

The bot focuses on trend-heavy ETFs in commodities, precious metals, and energy — instruments with sustained directional moves where breakout systems have historically performed well.

SPY
S&P 500 ETF
Flagship trend vehicle
QQQ
Nasdaq 100 ETF
Tech momentum leader
GLD
Gold ETF
Long-term trend vehicle
AAPL
Apple Inc
Most traded stock globally
TSLA
Tesla Inc
Volatile, breakout-prone
NVDA
NVIDIA Corp
AI-driven mega-trend

Watchlist reflects the instruments used during backtesting. The live bot trades the same instruments it was validated on — no live additions without backtesting first.

See It In Action — Free

The Turtle Simulator lets you run the exact same breakout logic against real historical data. Pick any symbol, adjust the parameters, and see what the bot would have done.

Open Turtle Simulator Explore ATSB Bot →